Austin's August '26 Stats: Steady Demand, Softer Prices, Tighter Inventory

We hope everyone's settling into the back-to-school routine, and here's hoping cooler fall weather isn't too far behind! Now let’s take a look at the August real estate stats and see what’s happening in the area! Activity has held up with total sales and pending units both edging up on a year-over-year basis, and inventory tightening as fewer sellers have listed and far fewer have given up. Prices are the soft spot. Average and median sold prices declined year-over-year and came off their June peak, and mortgage rates spent the first half of September climbing to a one year high.

Key Highlights:

• Months of Inventory in the Austin metro area dropped to 4.9 from 5.3 a year ago (an 8.1% decline), which keeps us in balanced market territory but trending tighter.

• Year-over-year average sold price declined 2.9% to $564,422 and median sold price declined 5.8% to $414,136. Price per square foot told the same story at $249 average and $207 median.

• Total Sales increased 0.8% year-over-year to 2,704 units and Pending Units increased 3.1% to 2,595, so buyer activity is holding.

• New Listings declined 3.7% and Withdrawn/Expired Listings declined 15.1%, which means fewer homes came on and fewer sellers walked away.

• Average Days on Market improved to 77.1 (from 78.8) and Average Sold to List Price improved to 97.29%, so homes that are priced right are moving a bit faster and closer to asking.

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Prices Come Off the Summer Peak

In August, prices fell month-over-month for the second consecutive month. The chart below illustrates this trend, with both Average and Median Sold Price down from their June highs. Average price peaked around $615,000 in June and landed at $564,422 in August, while median fell from roughly $450,000 to $414,136. On a year-over-year basis, the median decline (5.8%) was steeper than the average decline (2.9%), which tells us the mix shifted toward lower priced homes in August rather than a uniform drop across every price point.

Some of this is normal Austin seasonality. Prices peak in late spring and early summer and slide through the fall every year. What is worth watching is that the 12-month trend line for median price is flat, so we have not seen any real annual appreciation, and August put us below that line. 

Demand Held Up Better Than Expected

Pending units ran well ahead of 2025 for the first five months of the year, converged with 2025 in June and July, and finished August slightly ahead at +3.1% year-over-year, as you can see in the chart below. Given that mortgage rates rose through the summer, holding even with last year is a reasonable result, not a disappointing one.

Dollar volume tells a similar story. August volume sold was $1.53 billion, down 2.15% year-over-year because prices were lower, but year-to-date volume is $12.37 billion, up 6.16% over 2025. The strong spring bought us a cushion, and the second half of the year is running roughly flat against 2025.

Listings Slow, Sellers Hang On, Inventory Tightens

There were 3,774 new listings, which was down 3.7% year-over-year, and the 2026 curve in the chart below has tracked 2025 closely all year with a slightly lower August. The more interesting number is Withdrawn/Expired Listings, which dropped 15.1% to 1,608. Last year a lot of sellers pulled their homes in late summer to wait for a better market. This year more of them are staying on, adjusting list price, and selling.

The combination of fewer new listings, fewer withdrawals, and slightly higher sales is why months of inventory dropped to 4.9. That's still a balanced market by any definition, but the direction is toward tighter, not looser, which matters for anyone expecting a wave of new inventory this fall. That wave doesn't appear to be on the way.

Mortgage Rates Reverse Course

The bad news is mortgage rates. As you can see in the chart below, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.88% on September 10, a new 52-week high, after a hotter producer price report and a firm consumer inflation reading kept pressure on long term borrowing costs. That puts rates almost a full percentage point above the year's low of 5.90% set in late February and about 61 basis points above the same week last year. Buyers who were shopping in the spring at rates under 6% are shopping at nearly 7% today, and that explains most of the summer price softness.

Headline inflation came in at 3.4% year over year in August, unchanged from July, with core CPI at 2.4%. The Fed meets this week, and the bond market goes into Wednesday's meeting tilted toward a hike rather than a cut. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the 30 year rate to average between 6.6% and 6.7% through the rest of 2026, and Fannie Mae expects 6.7% to 6.8%. What this means…do not plan around rate relief this year. Instead, plan around the payment you can afford today and treat any future refinance as a bonus.

If you're a buyer

Prices are lower than they were in June, inventory is balanced, and sellers who are still on the market in September are more realistic than the ones who listed in April. That is a good buying environment, even with rates near 7%. The sale-to- list ratio at 97.29% tells you the typical negotiated discount is under 3%, so target homes that have been sitting 60+ days if you want more room. Get pre-approved, know your monthly number, and move when you find the right house. Waiting for rates to drop isn’t usually a strategy that works well!

If you're a seller

The market is punishing sellers who priced off spring comps and rewarding sellers who priced off last month's. Average days on market is 77, which means the typical home takes two and a half months to go under contract, and the fall slowdown is starting. If you need to sell in 2026, price to the current market now rather than reducing in November when buyer traffic is half what it is today. If you can wait, the spring of 2027 will have more buyers, but nothing in the data suggests it will have meaningfully higher prices, so waiting is a demand play, not a price play.