July 2026 Austin Market Stats: Prices Are Up. So Is Your Buying Power. Here's Why.
July was a strong month on paper where sales, volume, and prices all climbed year over year. With those stats, 2026 is shaping up to beat 2025 comfortably. But two numbers tell the more useful story: pending contracts hit a plateau, and inventory jumped to 4.7 months. Translation: the market is shifting toward buyers just as we head into the slow season. Here's what the data actually shows, and what it means depending on which side of the transaction you're on.
Key Highlights
Total Sales hit 2,950, up 12.5% Year-Over-Year, and Volume Sold reached $1.73 billion, up 15.4%. Year to date volume is $10.85 billion, up 7.44% over 2025.
Average Sold Price rose 2.6% to $586,150 and Median Sold Price rose 1.8% to $438,000.
Price per square foot went the other direction. Average Sold price per square foot fell 0.8% to $255 and the Median fell 1.8% to $214.
Pending Units were flat at 2,725 versus 2,723 last July, a 0.1% change.
Months of Inventory climbed to 4.7 from 3.5 a year ago, a 34.3% increase, while Withdrawn and Expired Listings dropped 12.4%.
Prices Are Up, But You Are Getting More House for the Money
Average and Median Sold Price both rose on a Year-Over-Year basis, up 2.6% and 1.8% respectively. Look at the trend line below and you will see the more accurate story. Pricing over the last twelve months has been close to flat, with a dip through the winter, a recovery through the spring, and a June peak that gave some ground back in July.
The more interesting number is price per square foot, which declined on both an Average and Median basis. When total price rises while price per square foot falls, it means the mix of what sold got bigger, not that homes got more expensive. Buyers are buying more square footage per dollar than they were a year ago, which is a real gain that does not show up in the headline price numbers.
Pending Units Were Flat, and That Is Better Than It Sounds
2,725 pending units versus 2,723 last July is as flat as this data gets. Context matters here. July 2025 was a strong month relative to the first half of 2025, so matching it is a fine result rather than a stall. You can see in the chart below that 2026 ran meaningfully ahead of 2025 from February through June and then converged in July.
The blue 2025 line is also a preview of what comes next. Demand slid steadily from July through December last year, and there is no reason to expect 2026 to behave differently. Normal seasonality is arriving on schedule.
Sellers Are Staying On the Market, and Inventory Is Building
New Listings were up 2.1% and Withdrawn and Expired Listings were down 12.4%. Those two numbers together explain the jump in Months of Inventory from 3.5 to 4.7. More homes are coming to market and fewer sellers are pulling out when they do not get their price, so standing inventory keeps growing.
Average Days on Market held at 74 and the Average Sold to List Price ratio actually improved slightly to 97.5%, so this is not a market in distress. It is a market where buyers have real choice and sellers no longer set the terms. At 4.7 months, the Metro sits at the buyer's favorable end of a balanced market.
Rates Stopped Moving and the Market Went Back to Work
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.69% in the first week of August, compared to 6.63% at this time last year, per Freddie Mac. Rates are not cheap and they have not improved, but they have been remarkably stable, and stability is what actually gets transactions closed. Buyers and sellers who spent 2023 and 2024 waiting for rates to fall have largely stopped waiting.
You can see the result in dollar volume. July closed $1.73 billion, up 15.4% Year-Over-Year, and year to date volume is $10.85 billion, up 7.44%. Barring something unusual in the fall, 2026 finishes as a stronger market than 2025 by a comfortable margin.
If you’re a buyer
This fall is your window. Inventory is at 4.7 months, homes are selling at 97.5% of list price, and the sellers still on the market in September and October are the ones who genuinely need to sell. Competition thins out considerably after Labor Day and you can ask for things you cannot ask for in April, whether that is price, closing costs, repairs, or a rate buydown. If you find the right house, do not wait for the spring market to bring more inventory, because it will bring more buyers with it.
If you’re a seller
The seasonal slowdown starts now, and the 2025 lines in both charts above show exactly what that looks like. If you need to sell in 2026, price to today’s market rather than to the June numbers, and be honest about what your competition is doing. Chasing the market down with a series of small reductions is the most common and most expensive mistake sellers make in the fourth quarter. If you do not need to sell this year, the better plan may be to prep your house now and come to market in late Q1.
Our goal as your trusted real estate advisors is to provide you with the information you need to help you reach your investment goals.
As always, real estate is hyperlocal and extremely situational, so please reach out to us to discuss your specific situation. We’d love to help you and strategize what’s in your best interest.
Cheers!
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