February real estate stats for the Austin Metro are in! Here's what you need to know.
We ran first-look statistics for February, which are available below. We’re confident that pricing has now stabilized, as Year Over Year (YOY) average and median sold price both increased modestly after declining by similar amounts in January. Total unit sales also increased. The big news is that pending units increased substantially while new listings increased very significantly.
Key Highlights
YOY Average sold price increased +3.4% and median sold price increased 1.1%
Sold units increased +6.5% YOY
Pending units increased +23.9% YOY while new listings increased +44.8% YOY
Average days on the market for sold listings is now 79
There are 4.1 months of inventory (MOI) on the market
MLS Inventory: Market is Tightening
We started collecting and charting MLS data on active, pending, and closed properties a little over a year ago. There is no way to go back and recreate this data from MLS, so we collect it week by week.
This chart allows us to see the weekly shifts in the market, and right now the market is starting to feel just a bit constrained. In trading terms, we would say the market is getting tighter. There is approximately a 4% increase in active properties hitting the market every week and about a 6%-7% increase in pending/under-contract properties. If you are selling, this is a good time to hit the market as compared to the last 6 months. If you are buying, we are starting to see multiple offers again - so if you see something you like, go for it! Don't assume it will be there in two weeks.
Pricing Stabilization
Average and median sold prices declined slightly in January and reversed course in February, increasing marginally. The total price movement is net neutral and a strong indication that pricing has stabilized after the post-Covid correction. We expect minimal overall price movement in 2024, but we do expect trends to follow normal seasonal patterns, which means month-over-month (MOM) increases in the late spring and summer months followed by marginal declines in the fall/winter.
YOY Pending and Sold Unit Gains
Pending units increased again and by a large amount at +23.9%. Sold units increased by +6.5% and we expect larger sold unit gains in 30-60 days as pending units are a leading indicator. These gains indicate that 2024 will outperform 2023 from a volume and unit sold perspective.
Huge Jump in New Listings
The number of new listings increased YOY by +44.8%. This increase is so substantial that we triple-checked our numbers and emailed ABOR to confirm they are correct. Steve Crossland summarized this well and said, “It’s gonna be a horse race between new supply and increased demand.” There are certainly more buyers in the market this year, but sellers are coming to the market in greater numbers. That said, it’s important to remember that one month does not make a trend and we will monitor this closely.
Unique Opportunity for Buyers
Buyers had an opportunity in the fall of 2023 to lock in a lower price at a higher rate, and potentially later refinance if interest rates go down into the low-6% range. There's some indication the Fed governors think rates are going to be about .5% lower next summer. This creates a unique opportunity for buyers now.
Balanced Market:
In real estate, we think about the market in terms of how constrained the inventory is. It has felt like a buyer's market for the last 6 months, and now we're starting to see a shift. Properties are going under contract quickly when they are priced and presented well, and we're even seeing properties under $800k receive multiple offers.
If You're a Buyer:
2024 is highly likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity in retrospect. Rates will come down this year and into 2025, which will cause increased demand and rising prices. If you are considering buying in 2024, you will likely be very happy you did in the future. The great news is the supply that is entering the market. There is more competition in the market today, but February supply outpaced demand. You now have more options, and if this trend continues, you will have more leverage.
If You're a Seller:
Buyers have entered the market and properties are selling. Seasonality is on your side. If you plan to sell in 2024, now is the time to prepare your property and go on the market. The unexpected headwind is the increased number of sellers who have entered the market. You can overcome this with property preparation, strategic pricing, and conservative consideration of offers. The great news for you is that, if you are buying back into the market, any softening is on your side when you purchase.
Our goal as your trusted real estate advisors is to provide you with the information you need to help you reach your investment goals.
As always, real estate is hyperlocal and extremely situational, so please reach out to us to discuss your specific situation. We’d love to help you and strategize what’s in your best interest.
Cheers!
